Friday, September 7, 2012

Analysis: To Keep the Presidency, Obama Must First Win Over Florida's Voters

Published: Thursday, September 6, 2012 at 11:58 p.m.
Last Modified: Thursday, September 6, 2012 at 11:58 p.m.

CHARLOTTE, N.C. | The mission is clear now.

Over four days of speeches, President Barack Obama and his surrogates outlined a strategy heading into November that will be pivotal for winning Florida, which is unquestionably the biggest swing state up for grabs in 2012.

A retooled message on health care reform tied to Medicare, a clearer defense of his economic record and a concerted effort to reach Latinos and women will be front and center over the next 60 days as Obama seeks to capture the state's 29 electoral votes.

Obama's nomination acceptance speech and the convention were aimed beyond Florida. But the messages are particularly critical here because of Florida's circumstances and the fact that in each of the last four presidential campaigns, the candidate who won Florida also won the White House.

Florida's importance could be seen in the Obama campaign's announcement of a two-day, four-city bus tour through the state starting Saturday ? less than 48 hours after his speech Thursday night.

Mitt Romney and GOP vice presidential nominee Paul Ryan have accused Obama of cutting $716 billion from Medicare. But if Obama can turn the tables and convince seniors in Florida that they actually prolonged the life of Medicare, it could help sway Florida's bloc of senior voters to his column.

Undoubtedly, former President Bill Clinton, who maintains high favorability ratings from seniors, will be key in making the case as he did on Wednesday night. Clinton warned that Romney's repeal plan would reopen force seniors to pay more for medications and reduce the life of Medicare.

He is expected to campaign for Obama in Ohio and Florida next week.

No issue ranks higher in Florida than the economy. With more than a million people still out of work and the foreclosure rate among the nation's worst, pressure is on Obama to convince voters in hard-hit areas of the state that his plan is moving the country in the right direction.

Democrats have underscored repeatedly in Charlotte how bad the economy was when Obama took office in 2009.

If Obama cannot sell that message, a huge backlash could come from areas such as Southwest Florida ? which carried Florida Gov. Rick Scott to victory on a heavy pro-jobs campaign message.

Democrats say the challenge will be walking a tightrope that explains the economy is going in the right direction, while also acknowledging the suffering of the unemployed.

Source: http://www.theledger.com/article/20120906/politics/120909503

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